Richard Preston’s “The Demon in the Freezer” strays a bit off the main path of smallpox to the diversion of anthrax due to that powder-filled letters brouhaha back in 2001. A passage in that reminded me of a discussion I’d had here recently with Eric Johnson.
“The anthrax cells produce poisons that cause a breathing arrest in their host. Anthrax “wants” its host to drop dead. Anthrax-infected animals can go from apparent health to death with the celerity of a lightning strike. Some years ago, reserachings in Zimbabwe found a dead hippopotamus standing upright on all four feet, killed by anthrax while it was walking. The hippo looked as if it had not even noticed it was dead.
The carcass of the host rots and splits open, the anthrax cells sporulate, and a dark, putrid stain of fluids mixed with spores drains into the soil, where the spores dry out. Time passes, and one day a spore is eaten by a grazing animal, and the cycle begins anew.”
You can ignore the bit about the hippo, I just thought it was cool. The main deal is why these pathogens “want” to poison and even kill us. Anthrax is different from a contagious disease (like smallpox, for instance) in that it does not spread directly from host to host and so is unlikely to spark an epidemic. Is it also unusual in seeking to cause early death?
On an unrelated note, Steve Horwitz has notified us of the death of Norman Borlaug. It is standard practice for everyone to say respectful things upon the death of any halfway-noteworthy figure, and I don’t normally go in for it. Borlaug, however, was one of the greatest men who ever lived and so I salute him.
September 14, 2009 at 8:13 am
humanity is playing with fire. we keep overextending ourselves to the point that we need a scientific breakthrough just to avoid overwhelming disaster. the malthusian trap’s jaws inch closer together. at some point R&D resources will be absorbed by subsistence level population growth. well, unless we find ever greater numbers of people dying an acceptable cost to free up resources for said R&D.
I’d prefer we reach post-scarcity before that starts happening…or is it too late already?
September 14, 2009 at 9:20 am
Fertility is certainly declining sharply worldwide. Does that “prove” that it will go all the way down to replacement, and thus produce a crest c. 2050 that’s under 10 billion or so? Why? Just because that’s what happened in the eurosphere and NE Asian countries plus a few others, and is pretty close to happening in much of the latin and islamic spheres?
Borlaug’s legacy hinges on this – though he did certainly achieve massive benefits for mankind for the nonce.
I was not too convinced by the 2006 UN population report, which I just looked at. For their chiefly-propounded model:
“Fertility in high- and medium-fertility countries is assumed to follow a path derived from models of fertility decline established by the United Nations Population Division on the basis of
the past experience of all countries with declining fertility during 1950-2000.”
[...]
“Total fertility in all countries is assumed to converge eventually toward a level of 1.85 children per woman.”
page 27, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/WPP2006_Highlights_rev.pdf
I’m guessing the UN’s implicit assumptions more or less included the “psychic unity of mankind” – that all peoples will wind up desiring the same birth rate… and that they are all perfectly capable of producing US$15,000 per capita with today’s technology, and soon will. (The latter may be less strongly assumed as there are certainly poorer countries with low birth rates; but there is still a big correlation; see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fertility_rate.jpg.)
The happy picture of a crest in 2050 certainly could be true – only I’m not convinced.
See also
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_fertility_rate
September 14, 2009 at 10:11 am
I admire his intentions, but I have to admit I don’t think highly of his methods.
Basically, he bred dwarf crops that could exploit high doses of industrial fertilizers without falling over and dying.
The consequences of this… (sigh)
September 14, 2009 at 12:34 pm
Upon hearing of his death by the admiring Horwitz, the spectre of Kevin Carson began to haunt me. I guess I should go take another look at just what it was about Borlaug he had a problem with.
September 14, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Probably stuff like this.
September 14, 2009 at 7:50 pm
nazgulnarsil, there is little evidence for your doom&glooming. Humanity extends itself in response to scientific advances.
Eric Johnson, its not just prosperous countries, but also poor Muslim ones. Have you heard of the miracle of Bangladesh? Darwinian logic suggests that eventually a morph resistant to the demographic transition will emerge and we’ll get something like Logman’s “Return of Patriarchy”, but the Singularity may come before that. Evolutionary changes can take a while (especially relative to cultural ones), so that gives the Singularity (if it’s not all a pipe-dream) a good head start.
When the Carsonians accomplish something like Borlaug with alternative methods, I’ll give them a salute. Until then, Borlaug is the reigning champ.
September 15, 2009 at 1:08 am
Humanity extends itself in response to scientific advances. but this can lead to disaster unless accompanied by several other advances. take borlaug, why was hunger such an acute issue at the time? because advances in basic hygiene and medicine led to humanity extending itself, agrarian productiive capacity just hadn’t advanced at the same pace.
September 15, 2009 at 9:47 pm
Were the 1960s more hungry than the 1930s? I am skeptical.
September 15, 2009 at 11:13 am
I confess, I came closer to being convinced when I saw that dude’s dynamic graph at time 4:05 in the video. That’s a truly spectacular way to absorb all the data in five seconds.
September 15, 2009 at 11:53 am
What about “soil mining” and “water mining” – terms used to emphasize the permanent depletion of topsoil and groudwater.
Here, at Marginal Revolution, is a graph of land spared by productivity increases:
http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/06/norman-borlaug.html
What happens if groundwater runs out in an area? I suppose nuclear powered desalination and transport of water are at least conceivable.
Anyone have a good technical source on soil? I read this one, skimming at times. I found it a little vague:
http://www.isric.org/isric/webdocs/Docs/ISRIC_Report_2000_01.PDF
October 23, 2009 at 2:09 pm
> Anthrax is different from a contagious disease (like smallpox, for instance) in that it does not spread directly from host to host and so is unlikely to spark an epidemic. Is it also unusual in seeking to cause early death?
Any disease which can only propagate by killing its host will want to use up the host’s resources as quickly as possible and then propagate; this is basic capitalism, you want your investments turned over once future growth drops below your opportunity cost.
Why would the anthrax allow the hippo to walk around even 1 minute longer than necessary for the anthrax to grow? Contagious diseases and parasites have the luxury of the long-term.
October 25, 2009 at 4:32 pm
Yes, I was wondering if other contagious diseases try to kill their hosts, perhaps as a means of furthering the contagion.