It wasn’t too many posts ago that I last discussed the “Why Nations Fail” blog but via Cheap Talk I see it has become relevant to the news-cycle. They respond to Mitt Romney’s claim that Israel is wealthier than Palestine (wealthier than Mitt Romney even claimed) because of culture by instead blaming institutions, tying that in with the Israeli occupation. David Bernstein, on the other hand, would point out that the standard of living in the West Bank and Gaza actually improved after the occupation, and that (at least as of 1993) the per capita GDP was higher in those territories than Egypt or Jordan (from which they originally came). Eli Dourado is unsatisfied with either explanation and wants to know the upstream variables for both institutions and culture.

Their response either interrupted or marked the end of a series of posts on post-apartheid South Africa. Daron Acemoglu & James Robinson seemed to be chiefly concerned with inequality, while when I typically read someone worried about South Africa the fear is generally focused on power plants shutting down, HIV epidemics, or a supposed genocide of Boer farmers. They reference the fear of Zuma (and his machine gun song) going the way of Zimbabwe, but they think that the cautious avoidance of frightening the white elite led to insufficient land reform and the co-opting of black politicians. Oddly enough they praise the creation of a “vibrant” democracy even though it effectively seems a one-party state. Singapore is a very well functioning one-party state, and I would have said the same thing of Japan before their Lost Decade, but I don’t put that much weight on vibrant democracy. I’m also confused by their use of acronyms in the last post, I assume “NIC” means “newly industrializing country” but “newly latinamericanized country” makes little since there is a continuation of long pre-existing inequality, and Brazil of the BRIC group is quite “latin american” already in that respect. The comparison with Germany in that post is also off since it was already a fairly wealthy country before the world wars broke out. The original posts can be found here, here, here, here and here, but I figure they should be compiled into one so they can be read in one place and in order. (more…)

Business Owners Aren’t Sold on Obama

Legalize Prostitution, Then Punish Buyers, Not Sellers

Post-Aurora Gun Debate: Predictably Bipolar & Ideologically Rigid

Gen X Couldn’t Care Less About Climate Change

If There Are So Few Fires, Why Are There So Many Firefighters?

No, Encouraging Suicide From Your Computer Is Not Free Speech, Court Rules

Are Americans More Conformist Than Europeans?

Conservative Teen Star Takes Left Turn to Liberalism

A couple months ago Mike Martin wrote about the strange story of untrained evolutionary biologist Margie Profet and her disappearance. It was only because of its publication that Profet became aware her family was looking for her and reunited with them, and good thing they were since she had been living in poverty and with ailments as yet unrevealed. I’m sure Martin feels some warm fuzzies that his work had a positive impact (an on rather short notice too), but as a member of the younger generation it seems somewhat ridiculous that should be necessary. Shouldn’t anybody be able to set up a free email account they can access from a public library or something? And I guess there’s that Facebook thing if you’re into that. The optimal possibility from my perspective would be maintaining an open-comments blog about evolved defenses against pathogens, which I’d read even (or especially) if she was crazy.

I’ve finally read a book by Carl Zimmer, after seeing his (and his brother’s) byline on numerous pieces online. For some reason I thought he had also written “Survival of the Sickest”, but that’s apparently by somebody whose name rings no bell. Much of the book is sort of a complaint that people haven’t found parasites very interesting even though they really really are (did you know that most species of animal are parasites? I didn’t), but I’m going to write about that things that stuck in my head rather than what Zimmer may have wanted to emphasize.

Bit one is that the term “parasite” is not used to apply to everything occupying what we might call the parasitic ecological niche. Only eukaryotes & multicellular organisms are given the name, for reasons of historical accident rather than because it carves reality at the joints. Zimmer says this lead to parasites being neglected by scientists, because europe is more afflicted by bacteria & virii while tropical reasons have “parasites” proper. This made me wonder why that was the case. The classic explanation for the prevalence of tropical disease is that many species have to live in water (it is useful for carrying in nutrients and carrying out waste) and warmth is also better for most life than cold. But I would think that would apply especially to single-celled organisms (and eukaryotes admittedly qualify), while colder weather is associated with larger size. I mentioned earlier William McNeill’s claim that microparasites result in less selection for IQ relative to macropredation, and it occurs to me that a number of the macroparasites in the tropics actually should be visible without a microscope. But perhaps the overall fitness cost from all entities in the “parasite” ecological niche is still lower in northern europe.

Continuing on with the eukaryotic distinction, Zimmer argues that such parasites are more likely to manipulate their host than bacteria/virii. The reasoning seems to be that many “parasites” proper need multiple hosts for the different generational stages of their life cycle (the different forms generations can take made it difficult to tell at first different organisms were one species and satisfy Koch’s postulates, I was surprised to learn that Plasmodium have a sexually reproducing generation inside mosquitoes since they are single-celled). Could it also have to do with the complexity of the organism allowing for more complicated effects on a host, or am I placing too much weight on a fuzzy notion of “complexity”? At an rate, I was under the impression that a number of venereal diseases like syphilis (bacterial) affected their host’s behavior to spread more easily, as discussed in one of the chapters from “The Man Who Mistook His Wife For a Hat” by Oliver Sacks. I assume most readers are familiar with the Red Queen theory of infections giving rise to sexual reproduction, but Zimmer adds that William Hamilton & Marlene Zuk also argued that showy displays for sexual selection would be particularly common in response to “parasites” proper because bacteria/virii tend to just kill their hosts or get promptly eliminated themselves. I don’t know why one would expect that to be the case. Helicobacter pylorii and other bacteria can persist in hosts for a long time, and H.I.V is a well known persistent virus. Furthermore, one of the most well known examples of showy mate display is the peacock’s tail, which I had originally heard was supposed to be a credible signal that the peacock was not afflicted with diarrhea, which can often result from bacteria such as cholera (though I don’t know if cholera specifically is a common affliction of peacocks). (more…)

Conservatives on the Obamacare Mandate: It Was Wrong Then, Wrong Now

The Side That Watches More News Wins More Elections

Rape “Not Just a Girl Thing” Says Writer

Asians Now America’s #1 Immigrant Group

Is the New York Times Cheerleading for Gay Marriage?

People More Optimistic About Local Economy Than Nation’s, Globe’s

Dads Are Only Worth $20,248 Per Year Around the House 

Air Rage Literally on the Rise

I relayed that claim from Greg Cochran a while back, but inspired by this Half Sigma post I decided to present the actual numbers from the GSS.

Row: CHILDS

Column: WORDSUM

Control: SEX

Summary Statistics for SEX = 1(MALE)
Eta* = .06 Gamma = -.02 Rao-Scott-P: F(80,38080) = 2.10 (p= 0.00)
R = -.04 Tau-b = -.01 Rao-Scott-LR: F(80,38080) = 2.02 (p= 0.00)
Somers’ d* = -.01 Tau-c = -.01 Chisq-P(80) = 213.72
Chisq-LR(80) = 206.45
*Row variable treated as the dependent variable.
Summary Statistics for SEX = 2(FEMALE)
Eta* = .12 Gamma = -.08 Rao-Scott-P: F(80,38080) = 4.34 (p= 0.00)
R = -.11 Tau-b = -.06 Rao-Scott-LR: F(80,38080) = 3.85 (p= 0.00)
Somers’ d* = -.06 Tau-c = -.06 Chisq-P(80) = 485.56
Chisq-LR(80) = 430.81
*Row variable treated as the dependent variable.
Summary Statistics for all valid cases
Eta* = .08 Gamma = -.05 Rao-Scott-P: F(80,38080) = 4.70 (p= 0.00)
R = -.08 Tau-b = -.04 Rao-Scott-LR: F(80,38080) = 4.33 (p= 0.00)
Somers’ d* = -.04 Tau-c = -.04 Chisq-P(80) = 522.38
Chisq-LR(80) = 481.45
*Row variable treated as the dependent variable.

I’ve come across that “Firepower” character in the comments section at Overcoming Bias, there as well he seemed quite sure of himself in the absence of supporting evidence. (more…)

When I read at the “Why Nations Fail Blog” that “the very high incarceration rates for African-Americans is a uniquely American failure” I sent them an email citing Julius Uzoaba’s comparison of Canada, Australia the U.S and U.K. Acemoglu responded shortly afterward, saying they would follow up next week, and now they have. I would quibble with some of their points. They emphasize that the U.S is a democracy and say Prohibition was ended once people started  believing it caused more crime than it prevented and mobilized against it. According to Daniel Okrent, a major motivation was tax revenue, which it provided a lot of in the days of low/no income taxes and was sorely needed during the Great Depression. There’s just not going to be as much money in legalizing drugs, and the government doesn’t need it as much. Additionally, U.S complacency over the War on Drugs is contrasted with calls from legalization in Latin America, but I would emphasize that the most notable statesmen calling for legalization/decriminalization (which wouldn’t do much, the folks in prison are generally dealers rather than petty users) are EX-officials rather than the folks currently in office.

The title of his post was “Who supports the US penal system”, but the major policy discussed is the war on drugs. I examined support for legalizing marijuana here, surprisingly enough blacks were slightly less in favor of ending a policy which disproportionately incarcerates their cohort. It was a pretty small difference, but I would have expected a larger gap in the opposite direction.

*I guess some James Robinson character is his co-author, but I’d never heard of him before, plus his name comes last alphabetically.

Samuel Huntington described Muslims as having “u-shaped loyalties”, strongly identifying with their clan and the ummah but not with their country. At the same time the region has long been associated with “oriental despotism”. I’ve been thinking about that while reading Timur Kuran’s “The Long Divergence: How Islamic Law Held Back the Middle East”. Some of the story begins before Islam itself, which you might think undercuts the thesis but makes sense since Islam was going to codify many pre-existing norms. The “hydraulic theory” of state development is considered discredited today, but Kuran cites state control of large-scale irrigation systems as the reason governments tried to keep independent sources of wealth and power weak (see my earlier post on family vs the state). One of the elements of islamic law that he blames for allowing Europe to race ahead is the relatively egalitarian inheritance formulae, which results in estates being fragmented (contrast the western practice of primogeniture). Pharoanic Egypt, Babylon and Assyria all apparently had laws mandating egalitarian inheritance. I did not know that, assuming that winner-gets-all inheritance and monarchical dynasties went together. Instead Kuran says that primogeniture and monogamy go together. The tendency of the wealthiest merchants in the Islamic world to have multiple wives and a greater number of children results in an even greater fragmentation of wealth. As a result, no aristocracy developed in Turkey, the Arab world or Iran. (more…)

It’s fitting that I read Hans Morgenthau’s “Scientific Man vs Great Power Politics” beforehand, because Steve Pinker’s “The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined” is almost its diametric opposite. Pinker even references Morgenthau as one of those people in the past whose wrongness we can reflect on (“The world is moving ineluctably woards a third world war – a strategic nuclear war. I do not believe that anything can be done to prevent it”). A great many of the same exact liberal idealists that Morgenthau decried are now held as prophets before (at worst) their time. While Morgenthau did have a sort of Gods-of-the-Copybook-Headings credibility to him, his case relied a lot on assertion and just can’t match the mass of material Pinker brings to oppose him. I ultimately have to assent that something has been going on, even if I can’t be sure that Pinker’s explanation is correct. This isn’t to say they disagree on everything, Pinker has a great quote from Robert Lansing on his boss (Woodrow Wilson, whose liberal internationalism stilll gets some credit).

Causality is always hard to determine, which Pinker acknowledges. He does his best presenting what psychology experiments have been performed, neuroscience and evolutionary biology learned and game theory logic understood, together with data showing what trends occurred at what time. But as Jared Diamond pointed out, soft sciences are hard. Descriptively, this work is a tour de force. I’d read (and reviewed here) a number of somewhat related authors like Azar Gat, Lawrence Keeley, Mark Kleiman, James Q. Wilson, Richard Herrnstein, Randall Collins, Richard Wrangham, Greg Clark, Henry Harpending & Greg Cochran. Pinker has consumed them and much more, and where his presentation overlaps with my previous knowledge it seems to gel. It’s a big subject and Pinker gives it its due, across time and societies (even species), in different manifestations and from different angles. (more…)

Just the Facts Ma’am: Attitudes to Global Warming About Values, Not Knowledge

Doctor Forced to Pay Child Support for Abortion Debacle

Romney Way Ahead Among Veterans

Turns Out Parents Are Happier Than People Without Kids

Stay-at-Home Moms an Unhappy Bunch?

Republicans & Democrats Even Shop Differently

Yes, There Are Liberal and Conservative Baby Names

People Who Read More Are Thinner

As I should have expected and waited for before writing my own post, Kleiman replies aptly.

I suppose Handey himself is still kicking, but nobody has cared in some time. Steven Kaas is a suitable replacement.

From the past month or so:

Gay Couples More Racially Diverse

Underemployed, But Loving It

Is Marriage for the Rich?

Americans With Disabilities Act Covers the Pee-Shy Too

The 5 Most Dangerous Cities for Women

Atheists and Compassion: A Match Not Made in Heaven

In Condoms We Mistrust

Ladies and Gentle-men, Meet the Men’s Rights Movement

 

Hey, follow me.

Many people have heard of how John von Neumann proposed a pre-emptive nuclear attack on the Soviet Union before they got any nukes themselves. It’s sometimes used to illustrate his weirdness, or to critique his extreme version of game-theory (sometimes linked with John Nash’s insanity). You probably weren’t aware that Bertrand Russell, famous pacifist (though of course he made an exception for Nazis) and anti-A-bomb crusader who gave us the “peace” symbol advocated the same thing. To be precise, he wanted to threaten the Soviets with nuclear assault in order to avoid an even worse war down the road, but he confirmed that he was willing to actually nuke them if necessary.

If I had written this more recently, I would merely have updated it, but by now an entirely new post is warranted. Rob Sica pointed out to me that Glenn Loury has an article on the legacy of James Q. Wilson in this month’s Boston Review. As Loury mentioned in some of the diavlogs I commented on earlier, Glenn knew Wilson personally and was involved in domestic policy neoconservatism in the 80s. I’m not going to go into his life’s course again, just focus on Wilson. Loury’s summation is that James was a good man but the effect of his work on society was negative. Incarceration rates increased dramatically after his acclaimed work justifying an increase in incarceration. Weighing up good and bad is inherently subjective, but I will start out by saying that given some reasonable priorities Loury’s conclusion is entirely legitimate (I might quibble on how we can establish Wilson had a causal effect, but even that seems plausible).

Like Loury, I’m going to spend most of this being critical. Loury is frustrated that Wilson “stubbornly reiterated” his old views on crime even as “mounting evidence [...] showed that crime control had become too punitive”. In contrast Mark Kleiman tells us in this eulogy that Wilson signed on to a Supreme Court appeal which was based on rejecting an 80s criminology theory that Wilson had previously promoted. I’ve linked to Kleiman on Wilson a couple times, and Mark does of course have a more positive evaluation possibly related to his Wilson-inspired-but-critiquing book “When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment”. I think it’s relevant that Wilson endorsed this book which argued that punitivity (probably a real word) and incarceration have gone too far in America.

Loury also criticizes fellow travelers like Edward Banfield and Daniel Patrick Moynihan (whom Loury once praised as having the prognostication of prognostications). He says Banfield’s focus on the values and character of the poor “might have made sense for Sicily, but did not travel well to the South Bronx”. It sounds applicable to me in either case and I’d like to hear an actual argument from Loury why not (I admit to not having read either Banfield book). As for Moynihan, Loury again acknowledges his perceptiveness but faults him for not coming up with social policies that solved the problems he described. The only person I can think of who passes such a high bar is Mark Kleiman, yet in their diavlog together Loury seemed to dismiss the “silver bullet” Kleiman had on offer with experimental evidence to back it up.

Glenn is correct in dinging Charles Murray for arguing that the child-rearing abilities of “bright” parents is the cause of social inequality, but for the wrong reason. As “The Nurture Assumption” and “Freakonomics” both discuss, parental involvement matters much less than we assume in child outcomes. He provides little support for his argument that the theories behind “Crime and Human Nature” were “of dubious scientific value”. He talks about what it “looks like” and “smacks of”, but shies away from making a scientific critique. In a previous diavlog he pointed out the section on body-types (ectomorph, mesomorph, etc) for ridicule, but as pointed out then there really does seem to be a significant correlation with crime and for some quite understandable reasons. I’d also add that the analogy between rearing children and training pets that Loury derides is just what Kleiman uses to indict our criminal justice system! Finally, I would have leaned toward Loury’s position on “broken windows” if I had read this decades ago. However, recent psychological experiments back up Wilson & George Kelling’s theory. Loury cites unnamed “scholarly critics across the ideological spectrum” failing to find evidence in favor of “quality of life policing”, but without citations it’s hard for laymen to evaluate such a claim.

Like Loury, I have little time for the Aristotelian vision of good life which closes out “Crime and Human Nature” and I presume is the basis fo “The Moral Sense” (which is why I haven’t read the latter). And if Wilson’s opinion that certain chemicals “debase” life is what caused thousands of people to spend years in prison, I will agree that is a terrible black mark on him and he should have been ashamed. He doesn’t make clear whether he agrees with Jim that our incarceration rate explains the lower rate of crimes like burglary compared to other first-world nations, the quote is brought out to speak for itself. Does Loury merely think that’s much too high a price to pay or is it an empirical mistake? I was disappointed in both his prior diavlog and his edition of Cato Unbound in which he shied away from empirical arguments, insisting that we as a society need to take responsibility for an ugly outcome and decide our political priorities (a la Christopher Glazek’s “Raise the Crime Rate“). Unfortunately he shies away from explicitly saying that in the Boston Review. I think the readers of that publication are thoughtful enough to deal with a two-handed economist.

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